Manchester United, Chelsea and Leeds were declared the winners of a frantic and particularly expensive summer transfer window, but Liverpool are among the biggest losers, according to data analysts.
United and Chelsea have significantly boosted their Champions League qualification chances, while Liverpool have actually cut theirs by 20%, despite the arrival of striker Darwen Nunez from Benfica for £85m and midfielder Fabio Fulham’s Carvalho for £5m after his contract expired.
Bournemouth, who already sacked manager Scott Parker after a 9-0 defeat at Liverpool, managed to boost their relegation chances by 17 per cent after unconvincing summer deals, the figures say.
Antony cost Man United double his valuation when he left Ajax, according to Twenty First Group
The twenty-first group assessed each Premier League club’s transfer activity to calculate the impact on their final position in the table and to determine who made the biggest deals.
The group, which advises clubs across European leagues on strategy, including transfers, has found that while Manchester United are paying far beyond the odds for players, their new signings are also likely to have a big impact on their season.
United have paid more than double the market value for their Brazilian star, Antony, who arrived at Old Trafford from Ajax for £85m – £44m more than expected, analysts say. The winger scored on his debut in the 3-1 win over Arsenal.
Meanwhile, Casemiro, who was bought from Real Madrid for £70m and Lisandro Martinez, who came from Ajax for £55m, were also in a list of 15 deals where the clubs paid extra. above the prevailing rate.
Casemiro was one of 15 players who cost more than his valuation, according to analysts
|Erling Haaland||Borussia Dortmund to Manchester City||£51m||-£150M|
|Gabriel Jesus||Manchester City to Arsenal||£45 million||-£76M|
|Rahim Sterling||Manchester City at Chelsea||£50m||-£63M|
|Oleksandr Zinchenko||Manchester City to Arsenal||£32m||-£20M|
|Fabio Carvalho||Fulham to Liverpool||£5 million||-£19M|
|Source: Twenty-first Group|
Ajax sporting director Gerry Hamstra says United have overpaid their stars with “huge sums of money”.
However, Martinez in particular gave the Red Devils a boost with his aggressive defending and was a key part of their four straight wins.
And United may well decide it’s worth throwing money at their main targets, with their transfer activity boosting their chances of finishing in the top four in the Premier League, and therefore qualifying for the Champions League. , by 12%.
If United force their way back into the top four, they could eliminate any overspending in next season’s space. Champions League qualification is worth around five times more than a Europa League place for English clubs, on average, with additional sponsorship opportunities on top of that.
Lisandro Martinez cost Man United more than market value but he’s having an impact
|Wesley Fofana||Leicester to Chelsea||£70m||+£63M*|
|Anthony||Ajax to Manchester United||£85m||+£44M|
|Kalvin Phillips||From Leeds to Man City||£45 million||+£36M*|
|Marc Cucurella||Brighton to Chelsea||£62m||+£29M|
|Amadou Onana||Lille to Everton||£34m||+£24M|
|Source: Twenty-first Group|
|* Analysts say the valuation was depressed
due to injury last season
In 2020-21, the most recent figures available, Premier League teams in the Champions League had an average income of £89m, compared to £19m for the Europa League.
During this season, United themselves earned £54m after being eliminated in the Champions League group stage, but only £10m for their participation in the Europa League, where they finished second after losing against Villarreal.
It was an extraordinary transfer window, with Premier League clubs spending an estimated £2bn on players.
Chelsea, who topped the spending chart with a spend of £254m this summer signing Raheem Sterling, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Wesley Fofana, Denis Zakaria, Kalidou Koulibaly and Marc Cucurella, have boosted their title hopes by 6% and the four best chances of 13%, according to the Twenty-first Group.
Leeds United, who signed seven players for a fee including midfielder Brenden Aaronson, winger Louis Sinisterra and defensive midfielder Tyler Adams, were the big winners at the bottom of the table, improving their chances of survival by 10% after narrowly avoiding relegation by three points and a place on the final day of last season.
Raheem Sterling was a blow when Chelsea bought him from Man City for £50m, analysts say
Marc Cucurella cost Chelsea £29m more than market value, say Twenty First Group
Liverpool’s prospects appear to have been hurt by the loss of striker Sadio Mane to Bayern Munich but was a key cog in the ‘red machine’, scoring 23 goals in all competitions last season.
Moreover, the Liverpool midfielder has been left exposed by injuries to Jordan Henderson, Naby Keita, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Thiago Alcantara and now Fabio Carvalho. The Reds were forced into a deadline day loan for Arthur Melo from Juventus to provide cover.
However, while Liverpool’s chances of making the top four have dropped by 20 per cent, there is still an 80 per cent chance they will.
Analysts also rated the best deals made.
Unsurprisingly, Erling Haaland, who joined Manchester City from Borussia Dortmund for an initial fee of £51m after his release clause was triggered, was the window market, if not in Premier League history. . Haaland, who has already scored 10 top-flight goals, was snapped up for £150million below his valuation.
Erling Haaland was the Premier League deal of the century – he scored 10 times
However, what City gained on Haaland they arguably lost on Raheem Sterling who moved to Chelsea, and Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko, who went to Arsenal. Collectively they were sold at £159million below their market rate, analysts said.
And Liverpool have struck a bargain themselves, securing Carvalho from Fulham for £19m less than his current value.
‘[Our] The Player Valuation Model assesses the transfer value of players based on a range of factors including performance, age and position,” explained Omar Chaudhuri, Director of Intelligence at Twenty First Group.
“It compares players to similar players who have been sold and uses those values as a benchmark for the market value of the player.
“Players will often sell significantly above or below this value due to a range of factors including contractual situations, the needs of buyers and sellers, and specific player characteristics that may be more or less valuable. on the market at that time.
How much did they pay? Gabriel Jesus was a bargain at Arsenal but Casemiro was expensive
Oleksandr Zinchecko was a bargain for Arsenal when he left Manchester City
It’s not just Manchester United who were ready to break the bank to get their man this summer. Analysts calculate that Chelsea paid £63million more for Leicester City centre-back Wesley Fofana than his market value, which was reduced because he missed last season through injury.
Kalvin Phillips moved from Leeds to Manchester City for £45million but that was deemed to be beyond the odds following the player’s injury problems and Brighton were on the safe side of the deal to sell Cucurella to Chelsea for £62m, mining £29m more than the market was clamoring for.
Everton also had to prove important in bringing Amadou Onana from Lille to the French Ligue 1. His transfer fee of £34m is calculated at £24m above the market rate.